Statistics you just can’t unsee.
Geo Group: The Border Solution No One Can Ignore – The Stock Story Has Completely Changed
For the past six months, Citron has been closely following Geo Group as the company became a default play on the Trump presidency and immigration enforcement. The stock shot up this summer following the belief that Trump’s reelection was inevitable. But as Trump’s poll numbers dropped, so did Geo’s.
ALL OF THAT HAS JUST CHANGED.
Let’s get to the facts that the market is missing. Last week, ICE Deputy Director Patrick Lechleitner sent a letter revealing that, as of July 21, there were 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories on ICE’s non-detained docket (NDD). Of those, 435,719 are convicted criminals, and 226,847 have pending criminal charges. These numbers don’t care about your political views—they are shocking, and they represent a massive problem.
Here’s where the narrative shifts and Geo Group becomes a win-win, regardless of politics. If these noncitizens with criminal histories were funneled into the Alternatives to Detention (ATD) program, which uses Geo’s proprietary technology to track individuals, we’re looking at almost a threefold increase in business. You can’t sugarcoat these numbers, and frankly, you can’t ignore them either.
