Today reinforces why $W Wayfair shareholders should be concerned. Multi-channel – Valuation – Supply Chain

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Citron Reiterates Wayfair Short Term $50 Target

Grocery stocks are getting hit hard today on the fear of Amazon disrupting their supply chains.  Similarly, as Amazon enters furniture, it breaks Wayfair’s strategic hold on it supply chain.  (MAJOR STATED RISK FACTOR IN WAYFAIR FILINGS)

 

  1. The Gorilla Enters the Room. The market reactions we see today in Kroger, Target, and WalMart (all profitable) show the fear in the market for businesses vulnerable to competition from Amazon.

 

  1. The importance of multi-channel retailing. $AMZN proves that some
    e-commerce solutions absolutely require local physical presence: Groceries are one, and furniture is the other.  Case-in-point: Amazon’s new “Unified Delivery with Services” program for furniture.

 

  1. Real companies get real valuations: $WFM got bought for 10.7 times next 12 months EBIDTA.  $W is a throwback to 1999, a business where there’s never EBIDTA, just cumulative losses.

  1. Profits? Never ever.  If Wayfair couldn’t make money before Amazon was a competitor, how can they possibly ever become profitable with Amazon pushing hard into their only marketplace?

 

  1. Forget Bailout by Walmart. Do not forget WalMart’s new national ad campaign rollout for Hayneedle – don’t expect any bailout for Wayfair from Bentonville.

 

  1. “Amazon Who?” Whenever an online retailer’s CEO says on a conference call he is “not concerned about Amazon” — and dismisses them saying they sell “batteries and books” … it is time to be concerned about your CEO.

 

  1. Follow the Money: Insider selling last 6 months for Whole Foods = $2 million, for Wayfair last 6 weeks $220 million.

 

  1. Analyst Shmanalyst. The analysts are so lost that the last upgrade on Wayfair (Piper) did not even have the word “Amazon” in the report.  Analyzing an e-commerce company without acknowledging Amazon is like writing about the 2017 NBA season and refusing to mention the  G.S. Warriors.

 

Cautious Investing to All.